Selleck on Science and Society

A recent article in the New York Times about declining water levels in deep aquifers in the western US got me thinking about the demand for corn to produce ethanol, and the resultant impacts on irrigation water.  The Times piece (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/us/high-plains-aquifer-dwindles-hurting-farmers.html?ref=science) describes the impact of declining water levels on farmers who use center sweep irrigation to grow corn, wheat, milo, and other crops.  The recent drought has increased the demand for groundwater, which in the High Plains comes from deep-seated aquifers that recharge very slowly.  In essence, the water is mined, because rates of withdrawal well exceed the rates  of recharge. 

Have increased prices for corn, driven by expansion of the ethanol requirements for US gasoline, caused increases in corn planting on marginal land that requires irrigation?  Data on this is limited, although it is clear that demand for corn from the non-ethanol market has remained flat, and there has been a 10% increase in corn acreage planted over the last decade due to ethanol expansion (http://www.agri-pulse.com/ERS_cropland_8192011.asp).  Global demand for corn from the ethanol market is expected to grow by 40% through 2022 (http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/9546/usda-global-ethanol-production-to-grow-40-percent-through-2022). 

Growing one bushel of corn with total irrigation requires 2500 gallons of water though the growing season (http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/aug11/water0811.htm).  Now, there are very few areas where all the water to grow corn comes from irrigation - natural rainfall and soil moisture provides all the water in ~85% of corn grown. However, 2500 gallons per bushel is a good end-member point for our calculations.  One bushel of corn produces ~2.8 gallons of ethanol. To compare with natural gas, 1000 cubic feet of natural gas (1 MCF) is the energy equivalent of 12 gallons of ethanol. 

Now, to put this in another frame, one hydraulically fractured Marcellus shale gas well can be expected to produce between 1.4 and 2.1 BCF (billion cubic feet) of natural gas (http://marcelluscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/es305162w.pdf).  Taking the median at 1.8 BCF, or 1.8 million MCF, a single average Marcellus well will produce energy equivalent to 21.6 million gallons of ethanol.  Using the end-member circumstance for irrigation, the corn that would produce 21.6 million gallons of ethanol would require 19 billion gallons of water.  A single Marcellus hydraulically fractured well requires ~5 million gallons of water (http://www.chk.com/media/educational-library/fact-sheets/marcellus/marcellus_water_use_fact_sheet.pdf) to produce that energy equivalent.

Obviously this is a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation that leaves out all sorts of other elements in both energy cycles - for the corn - gas for the tractors to till the fields, energy used by irrigation pumps, etc, and for the natural gas - the energy used by the drill rig, trucks, etc.  There are other caveats to consider, as well. The water used for corn irrigation is returned to the atmosphere by evaporation, but leaves behind salt in the soil, of course. On the other hand, most water used in hydraulic fracturing remains in the subsurface, and what does come back is salt-laden. 

However, the take-away point is that water use for irrigation of corn to produce ethanol is ill-spent.  As long as ethanol use in motor fuel is mandated, demand for corn will increase, as will the need for irrigation.  The water will not be found in the High Plains Aquifer.

(image from the NY Times article referenced above)

I was recently asked about earthquake hazard in central New York.  The question arose relative to a recent blog in Scientific American that called attention to the New Madrid Earthquake zone. http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/rosetta-stones/2013/03/21/danger-zone-the-new-madrid-seismic-zone/  Also, folks have raised concerns about the triggering of earthquakes by hydraulic fracturing of gas shale formations.

Keystone? Hydraulic Fracturing? Get real!

Much has been made of Joe Nocera’s essay

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/nocera-how-not-to-fix-climate-change.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fopinion%2Findex.jsonp

about the Keystone pipeline, in the New York Times of 2/17. He points out that the strident views of certain environmentalists (McKibben, Hansen, et al) gain public notice, and arrest (although with generally minimal sanction) and are in his view, wrong-headed. Taken, as he presents it, on the short-term, Nocera’s argument has merit.

However, those who understand that accelerating fossil fuel consumption likely drives climate change, recognize that neither approval (or disapproval) of Keystone or high volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) in New York will have any impact on anthropogenic carbon loading of the atmosphere. So, for activists who are interested in real advance on climate change, here are things worth being arrested for (although it may be difficult to find arrestable venues):

1. Serious carbon emission tax, that would include biofuels

2. More nuclear power plants for base electric demand

3. Federal panel to permit siting wind and solar power facilities

4. And, for all the right reasons, a $1 per gallon ‘Patriot Tax’ on gasoline

These photos, which separately, and together, begin to tell the hydrologic story of the US southwest, were taken as we were traveling from Tucson, AZ to Hamilton, NY via Las Vegas, NV. The first photo shows the snow line in the central Colorado Rockies. The second is the iconic view of Lake Mead reservoir (it is not really a lake, right?) immediately above Hoover Dam. The blog title “White on Black” calls attention to the border between the white of the snow on the Rockies, and black of the landscape below the snowline; at Lake Mead reservoir the white of the salt encrusted rock, with black rock above and dark water below, forms equally telling boundaries.  

What is the hydrologic story?  Simply, the loss of winter snow cover in the Rockies leads to less flow in the Colorado, lowering the delivery of water to Lake Mead reservoir. As winter shortens, less snow means less meltwater supplied to the river system. In addition, water capture from the Colorado system to supply the I25 corridor to the east diminishes flow. The demand on the lower Colorado River from water agreements made many decades ago (updated, somewhat, recently to increase flow into Mexico, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/us/us-and-mexico-sign-deal-on-managing-colorado-river.html?ref=world) assure that the white ring on the black rock will remain.   

Cadillac Desert, by Marc Reisner (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert) provides a good analysis, although recent trends in climate are probably underestimated in the 1993 revision.

Selleck’s School, Pierrepont, NY

An editorial in yesterday’s New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/16/opinion/getting-obamas-preschool-education-plan-right.html?ref=opinion) asked that we give due care to President Obama’s proposals to improve and secure pre-school education.  The so-called  Perry system, which engages teachers directly in the family of pre-schoolers, holds some hope for improved performance later on, but many studies show that less wholistic programs do not substantially impact rates of success.

There are many, many theories about how children learn, and become prepared to be educated at higher levels.  This is not my academic field, so you are free to stop reading here.  But, since I have been an educator for about 40 years now, I will take liberty to proceed. 

I attended a one-room schoolhouse in a poor neighborhood in rural upstate New York.  The school had no running water, wood/kerosene heat, pit toilets, and a dark, rough-finished ‘playroom’ that had formerly been a woodshed.  There was one teacher, and the number of students was generally in the 8-14 range.  All six elementary grades were taught, with no kindergarten, to children from a range family situations, from stable to fractured and very poor.  Over the years before it was closed in 1965, the school produced many young folk who went on to college and successful careers. 

Pertinent observations from my early educational experience are that small numbers of students per teacher are better, and that mixed-age classes really enhance learning. I suspect that the latter is due to the fact that mixed-age groups mimic the learning environmental of the early human clan setting - with small groups of various, but pre-pubescent age, children working with a mentor.  Perhaps our current models of early-age education should look for innovation back in time.

These are current photos of the old ‘Selleck’s School”, where I learned my 3 R’s.

(thanks to Linda Pratt at Century21 in Potsdam, NY for the second photo - Selleck’s School is now for sale)

Appeals for donations to the Empire State Relief Fund continue to appear regularly on TV here in Upstate New York.  The screen and media figures in the commercial, including Al Pacino and Whoopi Goldberg, make simple but impassioned pleas for support to help address the needs of fellow New Yorkers following the devastation of the urban coastal zone in the metropolitan area.  Quoting from the http://www.empirestaterelief.com/ website:

“The Empire State Relief Fund is dedicated to providing resources to help recover from Hurricane Sandy and rebuild and restore homes. The challenges that New Yorkers face as a result of Hurricane Sandy are unlike any we have ever seen before. Thousands of New Yorkers saw their homes destroyed or irreparably damaged by Hurricane Sandy. Many more will face extensive, expensive repairs to make their homes habitable again. Some New Yorkers will receive a measure of assistance from private insurance, FEMA, and other government funding sources. However, in many cases, New Yorkers will face a substantial gap between the cost of repair or replacement of their home and the funds available to them to cover this cost. The Empire State Relief Fund will focus on long-term residential housing assistance to help fill the funding gap and ensure that New Yorkers can continue to call New York home.”

While there is no denying the needs of the many whose homes and businesses were lost during Hurricane Sandy, there is one aspect of the appeal that bears careful thought.  The repetition of the word “Rebuild”, delivered with passion and effect by famous screen actors, is troubling. We face, in our coastal zones, systems that are already overbuilt, with structures that stand ready to be punished by storms rising higher each year on the back of global sea level change.  When we say “rebuild”, there must be recognition that some, perhaps most, rebuilding in the zones damaged by Sandy is just a bad idea.  By rebuilding in the wrong places, we assure that the future will repeat itself, and that profound human losses will occur, again. 

I wish one of those famous folks had, as their tag line in the TV appeal, “Be smart”.

See where we should not rebuild at

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2012/1120-sandy/survey-of-the-flooding-in-new-york-after-the-hurricane.html

For what it is worth, my review of “Promised Land”.

“Promised Land” does not really deliver on its premise, but it was entertaining. To enjoy the movie, I did have to suspend my logical filter, since there is so little real, believable content. Are we to accept that the only ‘evidence’ to support development a modern-day land leasing team would bring to town would be a few generic statements about economic potential? Are we to believe that an anti-development environmentalist (and ok, he turns out to be a fake) would only bring pictures of dead cows as evidence?

That said, Matt Damon’s character is really pretty likeable, and conflicted in the ways I have heard from some O+G industry folks. His final monologue in the gym is not quite believable - given the intellectual journey he is supposed to be on, it would have been more realistic if he had also said “But, then you folks may get more money from this than you can ever earn from farming, so that has to be weighed, as well”. John Krasinki’s role is difficult, and since his lines are weak, his character is poorly-developed. That classroom scene is so hokey that if it weren’t for the plot twist spun on his character later on, you would just find him stupid. Hal Holbrook’s teacher-retired engineer is mildly believable, but since he worked for Boeing for many years, the character must have a substantial retirement income, and so represents the non-native, second-home owning, gentleman farmer-types that form a substantial part of the anti-development NIMBY brigade in economically-depressed rural America.

The town bar scenes are borderline offensive, and the guys who Damon interacts with in the homeowner scenes are simple caricatures. To portray the residents of rural NY, PA or OH like these guys these is distasteful (I grew up on a dairy farm in very rural northern New York, so know these sorts of folks well, and they don’t automatically get into bar fights with people they disagree with).

All in all, if you like Matt Damon, it is a film worth seeing. If you are looking for a tightly-drawn plot and deep character development in a movie about an important environment-energy issue, rent “China Syndrome”.

Tom Friedman’s wide-ranging intellect takes him to engrossing and usually thoughtful positions on an impressively wide range of issues. In a January 26, 2013 Op-Ed in the New York Times, “Revolution Hits the Universities”, Friedman calls attention to the emergence of new approaches to mass education, in the form of MOOCs (Massive Online Open Courses) and other new digital-techology-based products that will, in his view revolutionize, and democratize, access to higher education. As someone who teaches in a high-priced, elite (if not elitist) liberal arts college in the northeastern US, I watch the MOOC developments with great interest.  I do think there is potential for these forms of ‘new-tech’ higher education delivery to seriously erode the student market for more traditional residential colleges and universities, including the boutique-style education offered in the liberal arts mode. Indeed these new methods of mass teaching may be more engaging learning experiences than our traditional models because of the diversity of backgrounds that will intersect in the course.

However, I disagree with the notion that these new educational forms will increase access to under- or unprepared students, and that somehow MOOCs will become a sort of socioeconomic ladder for those not traditionally entering higher education.  Notwithstanding Friedman’s anecdote about the autistic youngster who finds a new and perhaps otherwise inaccessible learning opportunity via an online course, the people who will benefit from these new resources will be those already most able to pursue higher education.  To engage in successful, meaningful learning, online, in-class or ad hoc, requires a skill set to engage the content, and the learning process, and involves considerable self-motivation and delay of gratification. In this country, most of those who make it to middle school without reading, writing and basic math skills are to be forever left behind.  A MOOC taught by Daphne Koller, Andrew Ng, or anyone else will be of benefit only to those with the basic skills necessary to engage.  That skill set is the result of early, basic education that is most available to the economically advantaged.  Like access to Williams, Stanford, Colgate, Harvard or Yale, meaningful, enriching, lasting higher education via online classes will most advantage those prepared by the good fortune of their birth and early upbringing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/27/opinion/sunday/friedman-revolution-hits-the-universities.html?src=me&ref=general&_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/27/opinion/sunday/friedman-revolution-hits-the-universities.html?src=me&ref=general&_r=0

Mountain top coal mining (MTCM) is a major source of energy from the Appalachian Basin. With the advent of cheaper natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica Formations, one wonders if there will be a reduction in coal production from MTCM, and the attendant environmental impacts.

I have done a quick back of the envelope calculation based on MTCM data (2011 production statistics) from West Virginia (http://www.wvminesafety.org/STATS.HTM)  (see below) and using Marcellus natural gas estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) data from
(http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121744-mark-anthony/1132361-the-real-marcellus-shale-gas-production)

There were 61 MTCM production sites in WV in 2011, averaging 521,000 tons each of coal in that year. That amounts to 1.2 x 10^7 gigajoules of energy for each mine each year. Using a range 1.43-2.11 BCF of EUR natural gas per Marcellus HVHF wells, one Marcellus well equals 1.50 to 2.22 x 10^6 gigajoules. So, doing the simple math, one WV MTCM’s annual production is equal to 6 to 8 Marcellus HVHF wells total production.

However,  since 75% of the total production of a Marcellus HVHF well occurs in its first year, 8 to 11 new Marcellus wells will equal the annual production of one WV mountain top mine. Put another way, 500-600 new Marcellus shale gas wells per year would produce the energy currently produced by all the mountain top mines in West Virginia.

West Virginia Coal statistics opening page

www.wvminesafety.org

Andrew Cuomo has certainly brought functionality to NYS government, and his January 2013 “State of the State” address laid out new plans for expansion of state-sanctioned  casino gambling to provide new income for the upstate New York region. Native American communities have benefited economically from casinos, and there is good reason to allow these given the long history of economic suppression of native folk. However,  adding casinos as engines for our upstate New York economy is an idea that runs afoul of good social science studies that demonstrate rather profound negative impacts on individuals with gambling addiction. Gambling, like the lottery, extracts money from those least able to afford the costs. The link below provides access to a study prepared by Community Research Partners for a municipality in Ohio, and includes a thorough list of peer-reviewed research on the topic.

http://www.communityresearchpartners.org/uploads/publications/Casino%20Social%20Effect%201-21-10.pdf

In contrast to casino expansion, the governor made no mention of the status of permitting of high-volume hydraulic fracturing to allow development of shale gas resources in New York. While HVHF is no economic panacea, there will be positive benefits, and there are good studies by the United States Geological Survey which demonstrate minimal water quality impacts in areas of HVHF in other states.  The study below addresses water quality issues in the area of development of the Fayetteville Shale.  

http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5273/